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"And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32

WEBCommentary
Author:  Mark Alvarez-Anderson
Bio: Mark Alvarez-Anderson
Date:  October 11, 2008

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Topic category:  Other/General

Meaningless Dollar Index
Totally meaningless

The Dollar Index tells us absolutely nothing about the health of the Dollar

I was just reading this piece by Michael Rozeff. What Michael Rozeff says is something I have been saying for years.

In short, it is an exercise of banality to compare the Dollar to other currencies to determine whether or not the Dollar is getting stronger or weaker. Suppose the Dollar drops against, say, the Euro. You could pluck out a different currency, e.g., the Zimbabwe Dollar, to try to show that the U.S. Dollar somehow became stronger. It is like comparing yourself to other boats in the water to determine how far out at sea you are, while totally ignoring the shore.

If you want to know what direction central planners are taking the Dollar in, then you should be reading this. I can tell you with certainty that the Federal Reserve is running a very loose-monetary policy, which is never a good thing. What the precise effect it will have on the direction of nominal prices is hard to say, since savings are so scarce that the collateral for the loan market to make loans doesn't exist. But we can know in absolute terms that prices will be higher than they should be.

Another good piece of data to use to measure inflation is this.

Other useful indicators of the direction that our fiscal overlords are going to steer the monetary overlords in are:

Public Debt

Government Spending

The market is trying to cut back and save again, in response to real economic conditions. Unfortunately, the loose-monetary policy will only beget more problems by keeping malinvestment intact, preventing the market from reaching an equilibrium. While nominal prices may go down as the economy shrinks - and also as central planners prevent a recovery - the loose-monetary policy of today is setting the stage for hyperinflation after the market does finally bottom out.

Mark Alvarez-Anderson
Crime Victims Assistance Network Foundation

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Biography - Mark Alvarez-Anderson

Mark served honorably for four years on active duty in the Marine Corps infantry, and was a Libertarian endorsed candidate for a municipal office in 2002. He has held the NFA Series 3 license (commodity futures and futures options broker) which he did a voluntary withdrawal on so that he can trade futures for his personal account. Since the year 2000, he has spent much of his free time reading the great minds of the Austrian School of economics, such as Murray Rothbard, Henry Hazlitt, Ludwig von Mises, et al.


Read other commentaries by Mark Alvarez-Anderson.

Visit Mark Alvarez-Anderson's website at Crime Victims Assistance Network Foundation

Copyright © 2008 by Mark Alvarez-Anderson
All Rights Reserved.

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