Many Republicans lost the House, the Senate, and some Governorships. Few Conservatives lost. Very, very few Conservatives lost in the South. In my microcosm of one of highest consistent voter turnouts and highest Republican voting cities of 134 cities and counties in Virginia – Conservative Sen. George Allen ran behind the traditional Marriage Amendment and our more Conservative Congresslady.
That’s one of the ways Allen lost statewide. If Allen had done as well as the conservative protection of Marriage Amendment to our Constitution, then he would have won 58-42. Allen’s loss was from Conservatives not saying ‘Yes’ as much as ‘Moderates’ saying ‘No.’ That’s the view up from these grassroots.
Throughout the coming months, more predictably than attack ads in election season, the pundits will spew excruciating details of voting splits by race, ethnicity, religion, income, employment, region, gender, age, marriage, education, sports teams and favorite colors. Regardless of the analysis the politics of response proceed, using or ignoring analysis, to move the agenda.
Liberals will say Liberals or ‘Moderates’ are the margin of victory. Moderate the message. Dump the social Conservatives, especially the Christian Conservatives, to win.
Conservatives, especially the greatly-feared, Christian Conservatives, say return to the roots of Conservative wins, come back to Reagan’s principles, and clean up the corruption of power for power’s sake.
It’ll all be put to the test in the big show in for President and Congress in 2008. But, only the Republicans will chose between Liberal and Conservative. The Democrats will fake Conservative as much as they must. The decision the Republicans make may move our Republic for decades or, possibly, lead to its destruction. It’s not about the election of 2008 – even if it is Hillary. It’s the ideas and people who will determine if America exists in 2100 and, if there is a U.S., what it will be.
Demographics are destiny.
The North and Left Coast are trending more and more Liberal. The West is trending Libertarian contending with Conservative. The South is trending Conservative.
Population is moving to the South and West. Will the population moving in overwhelm the natives? Or, when the South is 40% of the Nation, will the politicians serve an Evangelical majority?
Furthermore, the Conservatives reproduce more than Liberals. But, an unstaunched illegal immigrant invasion, uneducated and unassimilated to the Conservative ideas - that are the essence of America - can tip the balance as long as there is voter fraud.
Ideas motivate humankind.
As the new immigrants convert to become Evangelicals, as so many do, or become more committed to their Roman Catholicism, they will vote as Social Conservatives.
As the new immigrants succeed in capitalism, as so many will, they will become Fiscal Conservatives. Those who suffer from the social pathologies of our society will become burdens to communities and welcome Socialism from the Democrats.
The real twist on ideas will occur if Republicans nominate a ‘moderate’ to run in ’08.
Conservatives have been loyal to the Republican Party. Loyal to a fault. Victories in ’88, ’94. ’00, and the big one in ’04, haven’t been repaid in kind. Two good Supreme Court Justices (one hopes), Partial Birth Abortion ban, a temporary tax cut, and the flawed, but steadfast prosecution of the long WW IV against Islamists when the whole world of opportunities was in the grasp of Republicans ruling both houses of Congress and the Executive branch.
If the Party that gained power through the Conservatives fails to govern as Conservatives, then how will a Party running with ‘moderate’ messengers govern? Conservative by accident? Conservative on occasion? Or, Conservative when it doesn’t matter?
Conservatives have two years to decide to support one political party when it makes right choices or to be loyal past all faults.
Pretend Republicans nominate any of the ‘Moderates’ running for President. How many Conservatives will call it quits for Republicans? Maybe fear of Hillary may be a tourniquet to the bleeding of Conservatives.
This Conservative, one man, will find a new political party, or none, if there isn’t a Conservative who earns my value vote. I’ve been loyal to a fault for too long.
James Atticus Bowden is a military 'futurist.' His novel, Rosetta 6.2, should be published in mid-2006. A retired United States Army Infantry Officer, he is a 1972 graduate of the United States Military Academy. He earned graduate degrees from Harvard University and Columbia University. He holds three elected Republican Party offices in Virginia.