The election of Brian Bilbray to the 50th Congressional District is a win, and make no mistake about it, the Republican victory is a big victory. The stars were all aligned against the Republicans, just as they were in the Ohio special congressional election when an Iraq War veteran ran as the Democrat candidate in a state in which the Republican Party was mired in scandal.
The election of Brian Bilbray to the 50th Congressional District is a win, and make no mistake about it, the Republican victory is a big victory. The stars were all aligned against the Republicans, just as they were in the Ohio special congressional election when an Iraq War veteran ran as the Democrat candidate in a state in which the Republican Party was mired in scandal.
It is worth taking a few moments to analyze the actual results. Polls had been showing the Democrat, Busby, and the Republican, Bilbray, in a dead heat with the last poll giving Bilbray a statistically insignificant two percent lead (within the margin of error.) Bilbray had an edge of four percent over Busby, and Busby got approximately the same percentage of the popular vote in her congressional election that John Kerry got in the same congressional district in the 2004 presidential race. In short, if this was a referendum on President Bush, Democrats made absolutely no headway at all.
More interestingly, Busby, who was running in a four man race, came very close to getting an absolute majority of the popular vote. Had the Libertarian vote gone to Bilbray, then he would have fifty-one percent of the vote. Had the anti-immigration candidate, William Griffith, voters supported Bilbray, then the Republican would have received about fifty-five percent of the vote – a landslide in traditional political terms.
Republicans need, then, to move more to individual liberty and tougher immigration if they wish to win elections. This jives perfectly with the sixty percent of Americans who consistently define themselves in poll after poll that they are conservative or very conservative.
It is also worth noting that this was in California, where Busby should have had two extra advantages in this election which were largely ignored by the Leftist media establishment. First, if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives then a Californian, Nancy Pelosi, will become Speaker of the House. A vote for Busby was also a vote to put a fellow Californian in a position to help her state, and particularly because Busby would be serving in the same house of Congress as Pelosi.
Second, because there was a very close and very hotly contested race for the Democrat nomination for government while there were no serious Republican primary races at all, more Democrats had a powerful incentive to show up to vote than Republicans. It is certain that these Democrats voted for Busby and not Bilbray.
In summary, despite replacing a disgraced Republican congressman, despite the conservative vote being divided three ways and all the Leftist vote behind Busby, despite all the unpopularity of President Bush, despite the artificially inflated Democrat turnout because of the gubernatorial primary, and despite the chance that Californians had to make one of their own speaker by voting for Busby – despite all that – the Democrat Busby actually did worse than polls before the election indicated that she would.
This appears consistently in presidential polling. The two leading Republicans, Giuliani and McCain, consistently run far ahead of Hillary and Gore in presidential polls. How can this be, if the nation is turning Democrat? It cannot. President Bush is at the receiving end of all the negativity in America, whether caused by acts of God (like Katrina) or the evil of evil men (like the anti-democratic terrorists in Iraq.)
It is easy to be anti-Bush but difficult to be pro-Democrat, because Democrats stand for nothing except a venomous disdain for President Bush. Republicans, by contrast, are acting on their own in Congress to force Democrats to take unpopular stands. This means votes on school prayer, gay marriage, flag burning, death taxes and every other issue that using its procedural advantage in Congress can allow Republicans to force Democrats to make unpopular votes on unpopular issues.
There is another momentum building as well. Republicans are beginning to counter-punch and counter-punch hard on ethical issues. William Jefferson, Cynthia McKinney, Harry Reid and Patrick Kennedy promise to figure prominently in Republican National Committee campaign ads leading right up to November. One or two more corrupt Democrat congressmen or senators, and the American people will begin to get the message.
The momentum has shifted, and once the momentum shifts then the political support of those who want to back a winner shifts as well. So far all Democrats have been able to do is tear down a president. That is not enough to return them to power. Hate sold well in Germany seventy-five years ago. In America, it nearly always loses.
Bruce Walker has been a published author in print and in electronic media since 1990. He is a regular contributor to WebCommentary, Conservative Truth, American Daily, Enter Stage Right, Intellectual Conservative, NewsByUs and MenŐs News Daily. His first book, Sinisterism: Secular Religion of the Lie by Outskirts Press was published in January 2006.
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