A persistent narrative asserted by climate alarmists claims CO2 emissions from our use of “fossil fuels” atmospheric CO2 are responsible for observed climate warming since 1880. Yet, the evidence tells a completely different story.
Background
A persistent narrative asserted by climate alarmists claims CO2 emissions from our use of “fossil fuels” atmospheric CO2 are responsible for observed climate warming since 1880.
This narrative is based entirely on two false premises: (1) atmospheric CO2 is a strong force for climate change, and (2) human emissions are primarily responsible for the growth of atmospheric CO2. Both these premises are categorically false.
Consider the following quote taken from a climate.gov article titled, “What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause?”[1]:
We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s. Unless it is offset by some equally large cooling influence, more atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to warmer surface temperatures. Since 1800, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 410 ppm in 2019.
Let’s examine the veracity of the above claims.
According to “scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by at least 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit) since 1880.”[1]
This suggests global average surface temperature (GAST) in 1880, estimated to have been 13.7°C (56.7°F), has increased to about 14.8°C (58.6°F) today.
Perspective
To put a temperature change of 1.1°C in perspective, the following graphic shows the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature over the past 600 million years[2]:
Recent temperature variations on the order of 1.1°C (1.9°F) are a mere 10% of the variability over the past 600 million years, 12°C to 22°C , a range of 10°C (18°F).
Current atmospheric CO2 is just 16% of it’s peak during the past 250 million years and less than 6% of its maximum (about 530 mya). Also, the typical temperature over the past 600 million years, 22°C (71.6°F), is about 7.3°C (13.1°F) warmer than at present (current global average surface temperature is about 58.5°F)!
Over this 600 million year span, Earth’s typical GAST of 22°C has been interrupted only four times, each interruption reflecting an ice era or near ice era (ca 144 mya) during which temperatures plunged about 10°C (18°F) from the typical GAST (22°C).
Indeed, there is no reasonable basis upon which to claim current climate to be unusually warm, particularly since it remains well embedded in the current ice era (extreme right of the graph above)!
The many natural variations over the past 600 million years are up to ten times greater than recent warming, putting the puny 1°C warming since 1880 into clear perspective.
Recall the original quotation from the climate.gov website (emphasis added):
We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s.
Let’s examine the truth of the climate.gov claim. Does atmospheric CO2 really play a “key role” in determining GAST?
The table above[2] shows the 550 million year relationship between atmospheric CO2 (ppm) and global climate (GAST, °C) in increments of 25 million years. Note the correlation coefficients listed at the bottom of the table. Correlation coefficient, bounded between -1 and 1, is a statistical measure of the dependence of one data set upon another. A correlation coefficient near zero means the data sets are independent of each other (no relationship); whereas a value of 1 (or -1) means the two data sets are positively (or negatively) correlated. A negative correlation simply means that an increase (or decrease) in one data set is associated with a corresponding decrease (or increase) in the other (the data sets change together, but in opposite direction).
Is climate change (aka, global warming) caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 as claimed in the quoted (underlined) text above?
It is impossible to have causation if there is no correlation. So if changing atmospheric CO2 is the “principal cause” of climate change, the two must be strongly correlated.
A statistical examination of the 600 million year record in the table above shows correlation coefficients between both (1) atmospheric CO2 and GAST and (2) changing atmospheric CO2 and changing GAST are very low (0.29 and 0.10, respectively). These extremely low correlation coefficients mean there cannot possibly be a causative relationship between the two, i.e., neither atmospheric CO2 and GAST nor changing atmospheric CO2 and changing GAST can have a causative relationship).over the 17 years from 2006 through 2022. This geologic scale non-relationship is confirmed by the best available contemporary records[3]:
Not only is it clear the two data sets (CO2 change and temperature change) are independent, during the 17 years from 2006 through 2022 their correlation coefficient is both negative and trivial (-0.19). Without correlation, causation is impossible!
This evidence unequivocally falsifies the climate.gov statement, “We know this warming is largely caused by human activities because the key role that carbon dioxide plays in maintaining Earth’s natural greenhouse effect has been understood since the mid-1800s.”
Indeed, we know no such thing because the 550-million-year record and the recent 17-year record both prove beyond any reasonable doubt that there can be no causative relationship between atmospheric CO2 and GAST since the two are highly uncorrelated and that lack of correlation means causation is impossible.
Ironically, the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and climate that most people have been indoctrinated to accept is that growing atmospheric CO2 causing climate warming. Yet, just the opposite is far more likely. Occasional growth of atmospheric CO2 is more likely to be result of natural climate warming that causes more CO2 to be outgassed from warmer oceans. As climate cools, relatively more CO2 is reabsorbed by colder oceans.
Conclusion
Two renowned scientists, Dr. William Happer, Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University and Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have examined this issue[4] and concluded, “in our opinion, science demonstrates that there is no climate emergency and no climate related risk caused by fossil fuels and CO2.”
Clear conclusions are apparent from these facts. Recent “climate change” has not been driven by changes in atmospheric CO2. Human activity has no discernible impact on climate change.
It is also true that those in charge of the climate.gov website should re-examine their premises because they are demonstrably and unequivocally wrong in their claim that “We know this warming is largely caused by human activities…”. Indeed, “we know” just the opposite… human activity cannot possibly be responsible for recent climate change!
Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Temperature, (2001), www.geocraft.com, after C.R. Scotese (Temp) and R.A. Bemer (CO2).
USCRN, NOAA National Temperature Index (monthly, 2005-2023) & Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations 1959-2022, Statista.
Comment and Declaration on the SEC’s Proposed Rule “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors,” File No. S7-10-22, 87 Fed. Reg. 21334 by William Happer & Richard Lindzen (April 11,2022).
Author of "Looking Out the Window", an evidence-based examination of the "climate change" issue, Bob Webster, is a 12th-generation descendent of both the Darte family (Connecticut, 1630s) and the Webster family (Massachusetts, 1630s). He is a descendant of Daniel Webster's father, Revolutionary War patriot Ebenezer Webster, who served with General Washington. Bob has always had a strong interest in early American history, our Constitution, U.S. politics, and law. Politically he is a constitutional republican with objectivist and libertarian roots. He has faith in the ultimate triumph of truth and reason over deception and emotion. He is a strong believer in our Constitution as written and views the abandonment of constitutional restraint by the regressive Progressive movement as a great danger to our Republic. His favorite novel is Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand and believes it should be required reading for all high school students so they can appreciate the cost of tolerating the growth of unconstitutional crushingly powerful central government. He strongly believes, as our Constitution enshrines, that the interests of the individual should be held superior to the interests of the state.
A lifelong interest in meteorology and climatology spurred his strong interest in science. Bob earned his degree in Mathematics at Virginia Tech, graduating in 1964.
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